Supply Shortages and Rising Prices for Year-End Products — Stay-at-Home Demand Provides Support

A meeting of the Western Japan Dried and Salted Fish Division was held in Osaka City, where participants exchanged information on the production and sales trends of year-end products such as herring roe (kazunoko) and dried cod (bo-dara).

Although herring roe has seen good catches in recent years, this year’s landings in Hokkaido have fallen by 52% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about potential shortages toward the end of the year. Dried cod supply has slightly decreased due to reduced landings across Hokkaido, and prices for large sizes are trending upward, influenced by strong demand for cod fillets.

Among salmon and trout products, salted sockeye fillets experienced good catches but are expected to rise about 10% in price from last year because imports from the U.S. are unlikely. Autumn salmon catches have been even lower than last year, leaving very limited raw material for processing. Salmon roe (ikura) prices have surged to unprecedented levels amid limited imports, making sales prospects difficult.

For tazukuri (dried sardines), while catches along the Sea of Japan coast were low, landings in Oita Prefecture brought supply roughly in line with last year. Some retailers have begun using hirago iwashi (round herring) as a substitute due to the decline in anchovy catches, though opinions are divided on whether this replacement will become established.

Despite concerns over weakening consumption and unavoidable price hikes, optimism remains that year-end products will sell well, driven by the popularity of mail-order osechi (New Year’s dishes) and rising hotel prices encouraging more people to spend the New Year at home.

While major year-end products face declining supply and rising prices, at-home demand is expected to support a gradual recovery in sales.